Out Obama, in Trump, bracing for the unknown

What you need to know:

  • Keen interest. Like the rest of Africa, Uganda is watching the goings-on in Washington, and will perhaps take keen interest in what president Donald Trump’s policy will look like. Throughout the campaigns and after elections last November businessman turned politician said little about Africa but a four-page questionnaire his transition team submitted to State Department and Pentagon last week signaled a likely back-pedaling on aid commitments and this could be cause for worry, writes Frederic Musisi.

Congo-Brazzaville’s president Denis Sassou Nguesso ranks tenth on the list of Africa’s longest serving presidents with 19 years, excluding the years from 1979 to 1992 when he first reigned under a single-party regime, and was last year in March re-elected for another seven years in office.

On December 26, last year, the African strongman left Brazzaville, for Miami, Florida on official business including reportedly a meeting with the US president Donald Trump at a charity dinner.
Mr Trump, who assumed office on Friday, was spending the Christmas holiday at his private resort in Palm Beach which is about 90-minutes drive away from Miami.

The meeting, apparently to discuss the humanitarian situation in war-torn Libya, was widely publicised on State-run media in the impoverished oil producing Central African country.
President Nguesso chairs the African Union’s committee on Libya, and this was in fact going to be the first meeting between the incoming head of state and any African leader.

Quite a few congratulated him upon winning the elections last November, which they said signaled a new cooperation, possibly a break from Obama’s constant lecturing on governance.
With news of the meeting making rounds the Trump camp came out to deny any of such meeting. Mr Nguesso, with the egg in face, and his team retreated into the shadows; the first chapter in the Trump-Africa relations. Several observers construed this as an attempt by president Nguesso to ingratiate himself to the billionaire businessman and it is expected many will follow.

Mr Trump first stunned the world when he unexpectedly shattered the Republican Party primaries by edging out all the 17 bona fide contenders.

Then, he unpredictably went on to cruise against an unfriendly media and off-target pollsters to upset career politician and ex-First Lady Hillary Clinton in the November polls, leaving everyone guessing his would-be move as commander-in-chief of the world’s most powerful military.

A Trump unconventional world
His lack of prior experience in politics or government is to some extent fathomable but his unorthodox methods, pronouncements and approaches, is what is worrying the world.

He has poked holes in trade deals, especially ones he thinks are tilted against US, mocked the Paris Climate Change Agreement, denigrated the UN as ‘a club for people’ to ‘have a good time, upset US’ largest trading partner China by cozying up with archrival Taiwan, scorned Nato as “obsolete’, and just last week the New York Times reported that his transition team was querying whether it was worthwhile for the US government to continue involving itself in Africa through among, others, supporting the fight against the LRA and al-Shabaab.
One of the questions Trump’s team sought answers to was the rationale for US’ continued engagement in counter-LRA operations in the Great Lakes when Uganda, the birthplace of the insurgent group, is mulling an exit from the mission because it considers it spent force.

“We have been hunting [LRA leader Joseph] Kony for years, is it worth the effort? LRA has never attacked US interests, why do we care? the New York Times quoted the President-elect’s team as having asked.
There are at least some 100 US Special Forces that have since October 2011 been working as field advisors to the AU Regional Task Force pursuing the rebels in the Central African Republic, the DR Congo and South Sudan where they have been reported to have staged sporadic attacks.
Trump’s team also questioned the unending operations against al-Shabaab in Somalia where Ugandan troops continue to play a lead role.

“We’ve been fighting al-Shabaab for a decade, why haven’t we won?” the team asked.
US provides intelligence and logistical support to Amisom, which has enabled participating foreign armies push al-Shabaab to the countryside from where they have organised and executed lethal attacks in Mogadishu.
The valuation sent out to the State Department that advises the President on US foreign policy agenda and Department of Defence, charged with defence policy, further queried other commitments across the continent to which Washington has been funneling millions of dollars to.

Over the years US has supported peacekeeping missions among others in the DR Congo, South Sudan, Burundi, Cameroon and Chad.

Yet it is understood the information was to help guide the President on how to safe guard US’ geo-political and security interests and use of aid in Africa.

The US embassy spokesperson in Kampala Chris Brown told Sunday Monitor: “It is standard practice for every incoming administration to ask hard questions about existing programmes to determine priorities and direction for US foreign policy, particularly for a change in party control of the Executive branch.”
“You shouldn’t believe everything you read in the New York Times report,” Mr Brown noted in an email response to our inquiries.

“You should also not assume that the questions referenced in the article were written by members of the Trump transition team, or that the alleged questions indicate any change in US policy,” he added.
Senior government officials, likewise, told Sunday Monitor that it was too early to make comments on Mr Trump’s likely moves.
Until his inauguration on Friday President Trump had said little about Africa, once during campaigns when he cited the August 1998 bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.
But from his earlier remarks it seems clear he is not a fan, especially of foreign aid. For example in 2013 he took to Twitter to castigate Obama for funneling close to $7b (Shs24 trillion) in aid programmes which he described as “wasteful.”

“We should be concerned about the American worker and invest here. Not grant amnesty to illegals or waste $7b in Africa,” he said but defended his position saying Africa has “potential” to do better.
It should be noted that Mr Trump during campaigns rode on the slogan “Make America Great Again” a catchphrase understood to imply a shift to inward-looking approach rather than playing the superintendent role to other countries.
Since November, he and his transition team, have been promising to reset a number of Obama’s policies both home and away.

The US government has been providing Uganda an average $760m (Shs2.7 trillion) annually, a funding level that Obama maintained from his predecessor George Bush, a Republican credited for initiating the President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief.

Nevertheless, this funding could be rolled back and experts have warned of cuts to key infrastructure and healthcare programmes across the continent, with no probable foreign donors likely to step in to fill the gap.
In the likely event that this happens civil society organisations, through which the bulk of funds were channeled, are likely to feel the pinch too

What it means for Africa?
The answer to the questions depends on whom you ask. Already, there is divergent viewpoint, on whether Obama “son of the soil” has done anything for Africa besides the regular admonishing of leaders who don’t want to hand over power, the Young African Leaders Initiative a signet to empower future African leaders; with now an estimated network of 140,000 members, and the Light Africa project, a $7b programme launched during the US-Africa Summit in 2014 to bring electricity to millions of people on the continent.
Other credits include trade engagements through the US-Africa policy, highlighting the refugee crisis and promoting human rights.

It is routine for new governments to appraise themselves with Washington’s geopolitical interests, but the phrasing of the Trump’s team questionnaire has caused worry in some quarters as to whether the new administration wants an Africa policy U-turn.All is not gloom, former foreign affairs permanent secretary James Mugume, said in an interview: “What he [Trump] he is trying to do is look out for what is good for the US people. All previous administrations have always looked out for what are US interests.”

The difference here is that president Trump comes from a business background, “so he will always be keen on those details that his predecessors felt or looked at as minor.”
For example Uganda with its 35 million people “definitely cannot be a good deal” Ambassador Mugume noted, but “as a region with a combined population of 160 million people through integration if we come out as organised we can surely offer a good deal to the US.”
The choice of Rex Tillerson, the cheif executive officer of oil giant Exxon Mobil, as his Secretary of State was already interpreted as a significant shift from the traditional globe-trotting diplomacy as we know it to diplomacy of business deals.

What is also still uncertain is whether the Agoa, a flagship trade deal conceived by the Bush administration to give African countries easier access to US markets by scrapping import duties on certain goods, will endure under Trump’s administration.

Non-oil exports from Africa to the US, under Agoa, are somewhere in the range of $400b and created over 300,000 jobs, which makes it a bubbly economic lifeline for the continent.
The transition’s team questionnaire also raised a red flag about China’s growing influence in Africa with the question: “How does US business compete with other nations in Africa? Are we losing out to the Chinese?”
This also pointed to what could be his or one of the biggest preoccupation. As at end of 2013, there were a reported over 260 Chinese operating businesses in Uganda, employing over 30, 000 Ugandans. Such a detail is critical to highlight China’s influence.

Several commentators have equally been raising optimism about Chinese investments as good for job creation, cheaper infrastructure and technology transfer.
Research shows that China spent some $75b on aid and development projects in Africa in the period between 2000 and 2011, coming agonisingly close to the estimated $90b that US poured into the continent during the same period.
China’s EXIM Bank is similarly bankrolling some of the biggest infrastructural projects not just in Uganda but across the continent.

Unlike Obama’s administration which was a nosy nightmare for several of Africa’s strongmen, including President Museveni over governance deficits and declining rule of law, Ambassador Mugume, does not see Trump’s preoccupied with democracy or gun-slinging dictators on the continent.
During his inauguration of Friday, President Trump reiterated to put US interest first even when dealing with other countries.

Bringing leaders to order
Some analysts have as well denoted his “straight shooter” and “take a-no-prisoner approach” towards individuals he dislikes as one that will perhaps bring to order leaders on the continent who not only torment their own citizens, pillage their own countries but squander millions in foreign aid.
Mr Mugume believes this “won’t come that easily or even happen at all.”
“Simply put, I don’t think he will undo most of Obama’s policies,” Mr Mugume who served in Foreign Affairs until last November, said.

“But like it has been the case we are going to see a shift from the way of doing things by one group (Democrats) to another (Republicans).”

For President Museveni, after dealing with five US presidents since coming to power in 1986 and is into his second year into the fifth term running until 2021, is expected to pick new tricks to charm or work with Mr Trump whom early last year said he did not know or care about. Now he does, has every reason to and definitely will.

Brief on Obama

Barack Hussein Obama born August 4, 1961 was US’ 44th president. The first African American and first person born outside the contiguous US to serve as president, Obama is a member of the Democratic Party.
Born in Honolulu, Hawaii, and growing up in the Pacific, Obama is a graduate of Columbia University and Harvard Law School

In 2008, Obama was nominated for president, a year after his campaign began and after a close primary campaign against Hillary Clinton. He became president-elect after defeating Republican nominee John McCain, and was inaugurated on January 20.

During his first two years in office, Obama signed more landmark legislation than any Democratic president.
During his presidency he has been a vocal critic of authoriatarian leaders on the African continent.