Compulsory voting needed to counter rising political extremism

Voters at Embu Municipal Stadium, Manyatta Constituency queue to cast their ballot in the presidential repeat election at Kanyuambora Primary School on October 26, 2017. Compulsory voting needed to counter rising political extremism. PHOTO | CHARLES WANYORO | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • In Kenya, increased voter turnout is identified with populism and ethno-nationalism largely identified with the rise of Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement after 2005.
  • Despite the strong anti-Moi sentiment in the 1990s, voter turnout in the 1992 and 1997 presidential elections stood at 66.2 pc and 68.3 pc, respectively.
  • Surprisingly, the December 2002 presidential election, hailed as “the most democratic”, recorded a turnout of only 56.08 pc, the second lowest in Kenyan history after the 52 pc in the November 2005 referendum.

Commenting on the right to vote, Jose Ortega Gasset noted: “The wellbeing of democracies regardless of their type and status is dependent on one small technical detail: The right to vote. Everything else is secondary."

The right to vote has come under attack in Kenya’s October 26, 2017 fresh presidential election in which President Uhuru Kenyatta was re-elected with an overwhelming margin of over 90 per cent of a vote that was marred by opposition boycott, violence and intimidation of voters.

Peculiarly, Kenya’s election reflects a new trend in emerging democracies where the right to vote is abridged and weaponised in the context of election boycotts, intense ethnic mobilisation, political violence and intimidation to produce low voter turnouts.

This resultant “legitimacy crisis” is, in turn, instrumentally used by opposition elites to justify violent protests to push for a caretaker government and a share of power.

VOTER TURNOUT

Yet, the low turnout in Kenya’s fresh election is not an isolated episode. It is part of a worldwide decline in voter turnout, everywhere undermining the legitimacy of liberal democracies.

Over the last 40 years, voter turnout has been steadily declining in both the established and emerging democracies.

Bill Clinton, one of America’s most successful politicians, was re-elected in 1996 with a 49 pc turnout, the lowest in American history.

In Ghana’s December 2016 presidential election, voter turnout stood at 49 pc, the lowest since 1992. 

Voter turnout has been lowest in run-off and repeat elections.

LOW TURNOUT

In Liberia’s November 10, 2011, President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Africa’s first female president, won 90.8 pc of the vote in the low-turnout election where only 37.4 pc of eligible voters cast a ballot.

In this regard, the over 83 pc turnout in Kenyatta’s re-election victory of August 8, 2017 — which was controversially nullified by the Supreme Court — ranks among the highest in human history outside the countries with compulsory voting.

The low voter turnout in Kenya’s fresh election is not a “protest vote” against Jubilee as opposition wonks tend to argue.

It reflects the universal scientific factors that scholars have identified with the decline of voter turnout globally.

These include: voter fatigue, bad weather, boycott, intimidation and violent disruptions.

MULTIPLE ELECTIONS

While holding multiple elections at the same time is known to increase voter turnout, the October election was a solitary vote compared to the high voter turnout multiple elections of March 4, 2013 and August 8, 2017 which comprised six ballots.

The phenomenon of predictable election results reduced voter turnout in the October 2017 election, making it a “comfort election.”

After Raila withdrew, the element of a close race disappeared, handing over victory to President Uhuru Kenyatta on a silver platter.

The Supreme Court’s failure to have a quorum ahead of the election was a double-edged sword. It made Kenyatta’s re-election certain, but also lowered the stakes and voter turnout.

POLITICAL WEAPON

Moreover, the election missed a major contentious social issue (the fear-factor) such as the International Criminal Court (ICC) which galvanised the highest-ever voter turnout in Kenyan history in the March 2013 election.

However, low voter turnout is rapidly becoming a political weapon wielded by opposition parties.

It is now the wind in the sails of Odinga’s newly launched “National Resistance Movement” now agitating for a fresh election in 90 days.

Paradoxically, high voter turnout in countries like Kenya is attributed to the rise of populism and extreme ethno-nationalism.

In Kenya, increased voter turnout is identified with populism and ethno-nationalism largely identified with the rise of Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement after 2005.

POPULISM

Despite the strong anti-Moi sentiment in the 1990s, voter turnout in the 1992 and 1997 presidential elections stood at 66.2 pc and 68.3 pc, respectively.

Surprisingly, the December 2002 presidential election, hailed as “the most democratic”, recorded a turnout of only 56.08 pc, the second lowest in Kenyan history after the 52 pc in the November 2005 referendum.

However, things changed after Odinga replaced Kenyatta as the opposition chief. Populism and ethno-nationalism catapulted voter turnout in elections to abnormal heights.

Voter turnout in the calamitous December 27, 2007 presidential election rose to 69.08 pc. Some 70 pc of Kenyans voted in the August 4, 2010 referendum on the New Constitution.

Voter turnout reached an all-time high of 85.9 pc in the March 4, 2013 presidential contest, which Odinga lost to Kenyatta.

PLUMMET

Even before the October 26 election, voter turnout had started to plummet. During the August 8, 2017 presidential election, 79.51 pc of registered citizens cast their votes, six percentage points down from 2013.

Read my lips: If Odinga is not a candidate in the 2022 General Election, Kenya will see voter turnout return to the levels of 1990s.

Countries like Kenya where the voter turnout has declined and threatened the legitimacy of democracies have increasingly turned to compulsory voting.

After the 2017 election, where Kenya has experienced the most determined manoeuvres to prevent voter turnout, it is time to turn to mandatory voting to increase voter turnout, enhance the legitimacy of democracies, weaken the power of ethnic kingpins and drain the swamps of political extremism. 

COMPULSORY VOTING

Voter turnout and legitimacy of democracy in the world is highest – amounts to an average of 90 pc – in 20-plus countries with some form of compulsory voting which requires citizens to register to vote and to go to their polling place or vote on election day, including Belgium, Luxembourg, Argentina, Bolivia, Australia, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Greece and Singapore.

Where the right to vote risks being manipulated by ethnic mandarins and warlords in electoral disputes, democracies have increasingly turned to compulsory voting.

Mandatory voting will not only increase voter turnout, tackle the problem of legitimacy, but is also best positioned to operationalise the doctrine of the sovereign power of the people.

Compulsory voting is Kenya’s best anti-dote to election boycotts and rising political extremism.

Prof Kagwanja is a former Government Adviser and currently heads the Africa Policy Institute