Chris Christie's Chances of Beating Donald Trump, According to Polls

Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is expected to soon enter what is becoming a more crowded 2024 GOP presidential field, which is still dominated by Donald Trump.

The Republican Party currently has seven candidates who have officially launched campaigns: Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, conservative talk radio host Larry Elder, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina.

Former President Mike Pence will launch his campaign next week, according to reports.

Christie passed on a 2012 presidential bid when his popularity was arguably at its pinnacle, instead opting to run in 2016. Like the other candidates, he was overcome by Trump, whom he endorsed to run against Hillary Clinton. Christie was formerly close to Trump and helped with debate preparation, but their relationship deteriorated following the 2020 presidential race and Trump's baseless claims of widespread election fraud.

Ross Baker, a distinguished professor of political science at Rutgers University, told Newsweek that Christie's latest presidential bid is "quixotic" and "seems like a fool's errand." It's also not the fitting crescendo to the former governor's political career, he said.

"Revenge isn't a good political strategy," Baker said. "I think the intention that the Republican Party needs saving from Donald Trump is a legitimate one. I just don't think [Christie's] an instrument for it."

He went on: "In fact, in some ways, I think it's counterproductive and adds one more person to the field. The larger the field of candidates other than Trump, the more likely it is that Trump's going to end up with the largest number of convention delegates. What they're doing is dividing up the primary vote...and all these individual candidates end up with less than 10 percent and Trump is sitting on a solid 25 percent of the Republican electorate."

Chris Christie's chances of beating Trump
Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie attends a game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Dallas Cowboys on December 4, 2022, in Arlington, Texas. Christie, who is expected to announce his candidacy for president next... Richard Rodriguez/Getty

Trump's campaign has been overshadowed by state and federal investigations, but he still maintains a tight hold on the party as the nomination's front-runner. A Morning Consult poll of 3,485 potential Republican voters conducted between May 26 and 28 showed the former president receiving 56 percent of support, with DeSantis in second place at 22 percent. Pence was third with 5 percent. Christie was not listed.

While DeSantis has gained some ground after his mid-May campaign launch, shaving about 10 percentage points off Trump's wide lead, Morning Consult noted that a slight decline occurred before the Florida governor even declared his candidacy.

Polling conducted by Echelon Insights between May 22 and 25 showed Christie with just 1 percent of support, tied with Elder, and trailing Trump (49 percent), DeSantis (19 percent), Pence (9 percent), Ramaswamy (8 percent), Haley (5 percent) and Scott (2 percent).

The same poll asked potential voters which candidates they would consider for the Republican nomination, and they were allowed to pick as many as possible. Christie came in ninth, trailing Elder and Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, who has not launched a presidential bid.

A national poll by McLaughlin and Associates, conducted between May 17 and 24, showed similar results. Christie received about 1 percent of support, while Trump and DeSantis were the only candidates in the double digits.

In a poll conducted between May 19 and 22, Fox News reported that Trump received 53 percent of support and DeSantis 20 percent. Both candidates' percentage of support had barely changed since February.

A recent CNN poll showed a bleaker outlook for Christie and the five other GOP candidates holding 1 percent or less of support. Sixty percent said they would not support Christie for the nomination under any circumstances. About 55 percent said they'd never support Hutchinson or New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, who has not launched a campaign.

Maria Comella, an adviser who was chief of staff to former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, and Mike DuHaime, Christie's top political strategist in 2016, are expected to run Christie's campaign, The New York Times reported.

Brian Jones, an adviser to John McCain's and Mitt Romney's presidential campaigns, is reportedly running a super PAC for Christie. He said in a statement that Christie "is willing to confront the hard truths that currently threaten the future of the Republican Party."

Conservative political strategist Raven Harrison told Newsweek that Christie's bid is an exercise in futility as he tries to stay relevant on the national political stage.

"Republican primary voters are looking for a known quantity, someone who has done the job and did it well," Harrison said. "Christie didn't even run New Jersey well. He is a petulant bully who shut down bridges, inconvenienced tens of thousands of his citizens, and is as wishy-washy as a fish washed up on the Jersey Shore."

While Baker said DeSantis has a better chance than most other Republicans, he still sees 25 to 30 percent of the Republican electorate as "almost spiritually attached to Trump."

"It's not the kind of thing that can be shattered even by, you know, someone as quick-witted and acerbic as Christie can be," he said. "I just don't think that that is going to pierce that wall of Trump's support. That MAGA wall is a citadel, and you just can't shoot pop guns at it."

Newsweek reached out via email to Comella and DuHaime for comment.

Uncommon Knowledge

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

About the writer


Nick Mordowanec is a Newsweek reporter based in Michigan. His focus is reporting on Ukraine and Russia, along with social ... Read more

To read how Newsweek uses AI as a newsroom tool, Click here.

Newsweek cover
  • Newsweek magazine delivered to your door
  • Newsweek Voices: Diverse audio opinions
  • Enjoy ad-free browsing on Newsweek.com
  • Comment on articles
  • Newsweek app updates on-the-go
Newsweek cover
  • Newsweek Voices: Diverse audio opinions
  • Enjoy ad-free browsing on Newsweek.com
  • Comment on articles
  • Newsweek app updates on-the-go