n Monday, April 28, the Canadian people registered a miraculous turn-around in the modern history of developed democracies. In power since 2015, Liberal Party of Canada was trailing far behind in the elections till November 2024.

In that month, Donald J Trump became only the second politician elected to the office of the president of the United States in a non-consecutive manner. On January 7, even before he took oath of the office, the-then president-elect expressed his desire to annex Canada as the 51st state of the United States. He stated that he would consider using economic power to annex Canada as part of the United States. The statement proved to be a reinvigorating moment for the Liberal Party in Canada.

The Conservative Party of Canada, whose leader Pierre Poilievre had been considered a close ally of President Trump, had been leading in the polls but now suffered a reversal of fortunes. Suddenly, it found itself at odds with Canadian aspirations, territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence. The party could not hold against the rapid and convincing shift of the public opinion and mood that considered Conservative Party of Canada as the champion of MAGA movement in the United States. Notably, Canadian national ideals were found to be an antidote to MAGA slogans such as racism, de-globalisation and small government. Over the last decade, Canada has become much more diverse and the fear of a reversal united Canadian people against the Conservative Party.

As elections approached, the Canadian public’s response to continued provocative rhetoric from Donald Trump took several forms. As he assumed office, President Trump, citing the flow of Fentanyl and other drugs into the United States from its Western border and trade deficit with Canada, levied a blanket 25 percent tariff on Canadian imports starting February. As these tariffs went into effect, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau pledged to respond with similar tariffs against the United States. Canadian response to these threats of economic bullying appeared in the form of boycott of American goods including dairy products available in retail stores throughout Canada; cancellation of their travel plans into the United States; sale of their properties in the United States; and so on. Even in sports, Canadians booed when American national anthem was played in a hockey match. As Canada defeated the United States in the hockey match, Justin Trudeau took the opportunity and boast, “You can’t take our country – and you can’t take our game.” Polls showed that the approval ratings of Conservative Party were declining. On March 10, Liberal Party replaced Justin Trudeau with a new leader, Mark Carney, who pledged that Canada “never, ever, will be part of America in any way, shape or form.” The statement stood in clear contrast to the Conservative Party whose leadership, though rejecting any impression of compromise over national sovereignty, kept promising closer trade and political relations with the United States. Carney’s campaign adeptly transformed external threats into a unifying call for national solidarity, emphasising Canada’s independence and resilience.

When Canadians voted on April 28, the mood had transformed from supporting a dominant populist conservatism to an unprecedented turnaround backing diversity, multiculturism and redistributive economy. As election resulted emerged, Liberal Party had won 168 seats, short of only 4 seats for a majority in the parliament. Leftist National Democratic Party of Canada became the top victim of liberal rise, as its number of seats went down from 25 in 2021 elections to only 7. Liberal Party went up from 160 in 2021 elections to 168, whereas Conservative Party won 144 as compared to 119 in 2021.

The Carney campaign deftly framed the election as a referendum on Canadian sovereignty and dignity. The Liberals transcended partisan divisions and attracted voters who might otherwise have sat on the fence or might have voted for the Conservatives. In doing so, they tapped into a shared sense of identity that was rooted not only in policy preferences but in collective pride and resistance to foreign coercion. As a former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, his economic expertise reassured voters worried about inflation, housing costs and financial stability. More importantly, he framed these challenges in a global context, emphasising the need for Canada to remain open, democratic and economically integrated without surrendering its autonomy. His message of “sovereignty through stability” struck a resonant chord in a country increasingly wary of global disorder.

Because President Trump had become a transformative factor in Canadian elections, and because he had been framed as an antonym of Canadian national pride as a progressive democratic country of a rapidly diversifying demography, the Canada First narrative of Conservative Party and its leader Pierre Poilievre was perceived by many voters as reckless, divisive and disconnected from the national mood. Rather than offering a coherent policy agenda, Poilievre’s campaign relied heavily on culture war themes, personal attacks and scepticism of institutions. While such tactics have found success elsewhere, Canadian political culture tends to reward pragmatism over polarisation. The Conservative defeat was highlighted by Poilievre’s loss of his own seat, a symbolic rejection of the brand of populism he represented. Obviously, Canadians found themselves unable to fathom the kind of policies being adopted by the United States. Canada, therefore, rejected the overhauling of international security and economic order, offering a stumbling block and showing a resistance to cultural conservatism and mercantilism. In his victory speech, Carney asserted, “President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us. That will never — that will never, ever happen.”

Initially, the Conservative Party of Canada, whose leader Pierre Poilievre had been considered a close ally of President Trump, was leading in the polls. As soon as Trump was sworn in, Poilievre and his party found themselves at odds with Canadian aspirations, territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence. The party could not hold against the rapid and convincing shift of the public opinion and mood that considered Conservative Party of Canada similar to the US MAGA.

The election results show that though Canadians are united against American conservatism and threats to their sovereignty, they are much more divided among themselves. While it is true that Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric of absorbing Canada as the 51st state and his imposition of punitive tariffs generated widespread alarm among Canadians, many Canadians have been worried about economy lately and supported Conservative Party. The Liberals’ return to power reflects not only the weakness of their opponents but also their recalibrated political strategy. Moving beyond the fatigue of the Trudeau era, the party re-invented itself with a renewed focus on middle-class economic concerns, a green industrial policy and democratic resilience. By reclaiming the political centre, the Liberals managed to simultaneously distance themselves from both left-wing dissatisfaction and right-wing populism—effectively consolidating a broad electoral coalition.

Carney’s minority government faces significant hurdles. Domestic discontent over affordability of health care and indigenous reconciliation remains unresolved. Since 2015, when Liberal Party took over, Canada’s economic growth has been a mixed bag, marked by periods of growth, slowdowns and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Overall, real GDP growth has been slower than in the past, with per capita GDP growth lagging behind some other advanced economies. Canadians know they have been lagging behind other developed economies such as Australia and the United States. The economic disparity between the United States and Canada, already noticeable in wages and income, kept growing and has now reached at 8 percent. Canadian economy has grown only in certain sectors, such as construction, real estate and public service. These areas do not produce a cumulative effect on national productivity. Consequently, Canada has been unable to capitalise on its booming immigration. Over the past decade, it added seven million immigrants to its population. Yet it has been unable to benefit from this young, working-age and educated population seeking a better future in the country. Though economic progress has been moderate during the past three years, it has been falling short of expectations of Canadians who view immigration as transforming a tolerant Canadian society into a multiethnic polity. Thanks to Donald Trump, though these narratives have been rejected for the time being, they nevertheless will rise again as the election fume and fervor settles down and Carney government starts focusing on national issues.

The most important issue in Canadian politics will remain its relations with the United States. Navigating Canada’s fraught relationship with a volatile United States will require not just rhetorical resolve but also diplomatic dexterity. Its first test was on May 6 when Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visited White House to meet President Trump. While the encounter was diplomatically framed as cordial, it was unmistakably shadowed by President Trump’s repeated and provocative assertion that Canada should become the “51st state” of the United States—a notion Carney firmly rejected, asserting that “Canada is not for sale.” Despite their ideological divide and competing national interests, both leaders signaled a willingness to maintain open channels of dialogue, recognising that the deep economic interdependence between the two countries necessitates cooperation, even amid rising political discord.

As Canada moves forward, it has several policy alternatives that could transform its position within North America and in the developed world. The new government will find opportunities to redirect Canadian trade relations with China, Mexico, South America and Europe to avoid the United States. This shift will not be easy; in 2024, Canada imported goods from the United States worth $376.5 billion or about half of its total imports. It also exported goods to the United States worth $412.7 billion. There is an obvious trade surplus for Canada, which President Trump says amounts to subsidising Canadian economy and society.

As climate change brings new challenges, the Arctic on the north of Canada means new strategic challenges. The Arctic is transforming from a remote frontier into a geopolitical hotspot, ripe with new shipping lanes and untapped natural resources. This unprecedented accessibility has made Canada’s sparsely developed northern region a strategic target for foreign adversaries. According to the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, these actors are actively seeking to invest in infrastructure and resource extraction to entrench influence in Canada’s high north. Strategically, Carney should pursue a deeper defence partnership with the United States despite the current diplomatic strain. Long-term Arctic security depends on bi-national coordination through platforms like the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), as well as trilateral collaboration with Finland under the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort (ICE Pact). This initiative not only promotes joint construction of Arctic icebreakers but also facilitates critical intelligence sharing to safeguard the polar region. However, Canada’s commitment must extend beyond passive surveillance.

Carney will also be looking towards Europe to diversify economic, security and cultural relations. Under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Canada fostered a strong alignment with the European Union, centred on economic integration, defense cooperation and shared values. This alignment was institutionalised through the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, which has provisionally eliminated 98 percent of tariffs between Canada and the EU since 2017 and catalysed growth in bilateral trade – 65 percent in goods and 73 percent in services. In parallel, Canada has deepened its involvement in European-led research and security frameworks, including Horizon Europe and NATO operations, such as its leading role in Latvia’s Multinational Brigade. Should Carney carry the Liberals to victory in the upcoming federal election, the current trajectory of Canada-EU cooperation is likely not only to continue but to be strategically reinforced.

Mark Carney now stands at centre ice in a game where the stakes are national direction and democratic trust. Whether his leadership will restore the Liberals’ political momentum and meet the aspirations of an anxious electorate remains to be seen, but the message from Canadians is unmistakable: competence and conviction now matter more than political pedigree.

The writer is a professor of government at Houston Community College, USA. He recently published his book The Rise of the Semi-Core: China, India, and Pakistan in the World-System. He can be approached at suklashari@gmail.com