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Crashing out of the EU would squeeze household budgets. Photograph: Chris Ryan/Getty Images/Caiaimage

Tuesday briefing: Hard Brexit and the hip pocket

This article is more than 6 years old
Crashing out of the EU would squeeze household budgets. Photograph: Chris Ryan/Getty Images/Caiaimage

Crashing out of EU would hit ‘just about managing’ families … car bomb kills Panama Papers journalist … and the moment two stars collided

Top story: Poor would pay most for no-deal Brexit

Hello, it’s Warren Murray with your first bite of the news this morning.

A no-deal Brexit would rip about £260 a year from the average UK household budget, analysis predicts. The Resolution Foundation and Sussex University academics say “just about managing” families in the UK’s poorer regions have the most to lose from trade negotiations failing, with significant price rises forecast on a range of goods, including 8% for dairy products and 6% for meat, while car prices would jump 5.5%. The study found that the impact of rising prices would add 1.1% to the cost of living for the poorest 20% of households, against 0.8% for the richest 20%. Inflation is expected by the City to hit a five-year high of 3% when official figures are released today.

Meanwhile, Theresa May has been rebuffed by EU leaders over an attempt to smooth over differences. The PM came away from a dinner with Jean-Claude Juncker and Michel Barnier having made no apparent inroads on opening negotiations for a transitional Brexit deal. Citizens’ rights, the Irish border and the divorce bill remain the nagging issues on which Brussels is demanding progress before talks about future trade and easing Britain’s exit from the bloc.And if rebel Conservative MPs get their way, Britain will not leave the EU in the spring of 2019 without first securing a proper transitional deal and holding a binding parliamentary vote. They are lining up with Labour and Lib Dem MPs to take advantage of delays with the government’s Brexit bill – shoring up support for amendments that the Labour MP Chukka Umunna said would “ensure we do not jump off a cliff and withdraw from the EU in a job-destroying way”.


‘One-woman WikiLeaks’ slain – There’s been shock and condemnation after a crusading journalist in Malta was killed by a car bomb. Daphne Caruana Galizia led the Panama Papers investigation into corruption in Malta and wrote scathing blogposts about abuse of power and corruption involving the country’s political leaders, social establishment and underworld. She had complained to police about threats against her life in the weeks before her Peugeot 108 was blown apart near her home on Monday. Malta’s prime minister, Joseph Muscat, one of Caruana Galizia’s chief targets, said: “Everyone knows Ms Caruana Galizia was a harsh critic of mine both politically and personally, but nobody can justify this barbaric act in any way”. Muscat has called in the FBI to help with the investigation. A candlelit vigil was held last night – “Her life was not for nothing,” said family friend Luke Frendo.


‘Very gusty’ day ahead – Scotland, Wales and northern England are waking up to the continued effects of Storm Ophelia following three deaths in Ireland, which bore the brunt of the ex-hurricane. Flood warnings are in place on Scotland’s west coast this morning amid predicted gusts of up to 70mph. The Irish prime minister, Leo Varadkar, described Ophelia’s impact as a “national emergency” that forced the closure of schools and colleges and brought the transport network to a standstill on Monday. Three people were killed in accidents involving falling trees.

The effects were also felt in Northern Ireland with road closures and power cuts. Bill Clinton was kept away from a meeting with Stormont politicians to try and restore power-sharing. A yellow weather warning for wind covering Northern Ireland, southern and central Scotland, the north of England and north-west Wales is in place until this afternoon. Met Office forecaster Steven Keates said commuters should expect “very gusty conditions”, with winds of up to 70mph. He said: “The strong winds will continue but should moderate a little bit compared to what we have seen.”


Catalonia crackdown – Two Catalan secessionists are being held without bail and investigated for alleged sedition as Spanish authorities signal a hardening of their stance following the region’s unauthorised independence vote. Prosecutors blame Jordi Sànchez and Jordi Cuixart for pro-independence protests that trapped national police inside a Barcelona building and destroyed their vehicles. The Catalan regional president, Carles Puigdemont, said they were civil society leaders being held as “political prisoners”. The high court has also seized the Catalan police chief’s passport as Madrid threatens to impose direct rule unless Puigdemont disavows any claim that the referendum means Catalonia is independent.


Heavy metal hit – You might have heard by now about the collision of two dead stars and the gravity waves it threw out. But did you know that atom-smashing cataclysms like this are probably how gold is made? We’re used to huge distances and colossal sizes being bandied about when it comes to cosmic phenomena, but in this case the measurements and times involved seem very much on an earthly scale: these neutron stars were each around 12 miles across, and only about 200 miles apart before they spiralled into each other in under two minutes. Dr Stuart Clark delves into what we learn from our newfound ability to observe such events.


Themselves to tank – When a New Zealand town was left without a petrol station, its residents came up with a solution: build their own. Now, people in tiny Pongoroa no longer have to drive a 120-mile round trip lugging jerrycans to keep their cars running. It’s a positive story from a place where, according to one local, “community spirit is oozing out of the ground – there is a local joke that there are more committees than there are residents in Pongoroa”.

Lunchtime read: Legacy of a ‘calamitous promise’

After 100 years, the two sides in the most closely studied conflict on earth are still battling over the past.

Letter from the Foreign Office to Lord Rothschild known as the the Balfour Declaration. Photograph: Universal History Archive/Getty Images

The Balfour declaration – under which Britain endorsed the founding of a Jewish homeland in Palestine – is about to mark its centenary. Ian Black examines how the anniversary of a pact that helped set the scene for the establishment of modern Israel is being both celebrated and furiously contested.

Sport

Greg Clarke’s position as chairman of the FA is likely to come under severe scrutiny after new revelations about his handling of the alleged racism scandal and cover-up. His curt, dismissive, almost implausible response on receiving an email detailing Eni Aluko’s allegation against Mark Sampson means his appearance in front of MPs may be his final act in the job, writes Daniel Taylor.

Warren Gatland has said he would not be seeking the British and Lions head coach’s position for a third successive trip in 2021 because there were times this year when he “hated” aspects of the job. Mike Ashley, the owner of Newcastle United, has formally confirmed he is actively attempting to sell the club. Riyad Mahrez chose the perfect moment to finally rediscover his goalscoring touch as Leicester avoided the ignominy of three successive home Premier League defeats with a 1-1 draw against West Brom. Dejan Lovren has made the startling claim that Romelu Lukaku deliberately kicked him in the face during Liverpool’s goalless draw against Manchester United. And Carlos Takam has replaced Kubrat Pulev as the challenger to world heavyweight champion Anthony Joahua on 28 October.

Business

Asian stocks have shown little change after Wall Street’s major indexes rose to new highs as China prepared to open its Communist party congress.

In Britain, the ONS is tipped to report 3% inflation today. The pound has been trading at $1.325 and €1.125 overnight.

The papers

Britain’s burnt-orange skies provide a front-page picture for several of the papers – the Sun’s “Hint of red October” is the best variation on a widely used pun. The Mail calls it the “Day Britain turned orange” – its actual splash is about large-scale cannabis growers being let off with a caution. The Guardian says Theresa May failed to “move the dial over Brexit” at her dinner date with Jean-Claude Juncker and Michel Barnier.

Guardian front page, Tuesday 17 October 2017

Peers would be restricted to a 15-year term under plans to shrink the House of Lords, reports the Times. The Telegraph bleats that Britain’s “unfair” constituency system cost the Tories an outright majority at the snap election and they want it changed (you have to get to the second leg of the story before finding out it won’t happen because Labour, the Lib Dems and the DUP are all against it). “Outrage at new pension tax raid” says the Express, as the chancellor is warned against slugging the old to help the young.

The FT reports that an activist fund wants to break up Credit Suisse because its CEO has been slow to deliver a promised turnaround.

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