Presidential Donut Poll Joins Pro Pollsters in Underestimating Trump
LaMar’s 2024 Donut Poll showed “LaKaMala Harris” gourmet donuts slightly pulling ahead of “Doughnald J. Trump”
In a weeklong poll concluded November 4 in which LaMar’s customers expressed political preferences by choosing from red elephant-shaped and blue donkey-shaped donuts, results gave “LaKamala Harris” a small but sweet 51% to 49% lead against “Doughnald J. Trump” – essentially a reverse of the real vote nationwide.
While this aligned with some scientific polls prior to the election, the numbers did not correctly predict the actual popular vote nor the election outcome.
As of late Wednesday, Donald Trump had won the popular vote by 72.1 million to 67.3 million – a 51.7% to 48.3% triumph over Harris. Cumulatively, Trump won 32 of the 42 available electoral votes in the five states in which LaMar’s operates.
So, why would Harris have had a slight edge despite losing the election to Trump?
First, the donut poll is far from scientific, despite its accuracy in forecasting outcomes in 2008, 2012 and 2016. (No poll was held in 2020 due to supply chain shortages.) In those elections, the poll correctly forecasted the popular vote winner within 1.8 percentage points all three times and the electoral college winner twice. (Hillary Clinton lost to Trump in 2020 in the electoral college after winning more than 2 million votes more.)
Second, LaMar's operates a number of locations in metropolitan areas and college towns such as Kansas City, Omaha, Lincoln, Denver and Fort Collins that traditionally lean Democratic. (Although Phoenix and Maricopa County went for Biden in 2020 by 51.2%, as of Wednesday Trump led Harris there by 51.9% to 47.2%.)
“The LaMar’s team is thankful for all who participated in the 2024 poll,” said Matt Joslin, LaMar’s president. “We hope that we can all unite as a nation to celebrate our shared love of country and all the doughlightful things we have in common – like a love for handmade donuts.”
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About LaMar’s Donuts
After developing his original donut recipe as a teenager in 1933, Ray Lamar opened the first LaMar's Donuts in 1960 in Kansas City, Missouri. Today the franchised chain has 24 locations in Kansas, Missouri, Colorado, Nebraska and Arizona. LaMar's has won numerous awards and favorable reviews by such publications as The New Yorker and Gourmet magazine and was the first donut to be reviewed and acclaimed by Zagat, the world's most trusted guide to restaurants. LaMar's Donuts are proclaimed by many as "simply a better donut."
Ron King
Vanguard Communications
+1 303-382-2999
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